Through December 2024 With Forecasts Through December 2025
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in December 2024 compared with December 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.03% in December 2024 compared with November 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will drop by -0.2% from December 2024 to January 2025 and increase by 4.1% on a year-over-year basis from December 2024 to December 2025.
Market Pressures May Accelerate Slow-Growing Home Prices
Even as housing supply improved throughout most of 2024, buyer demand remained restrained, and as a result, U.S. home price growth has clipped along at 3.4% since September. However, the CoreLogic forecast for home price growth is climbing, indicating that a fresh spring homebuying season is just around the corner.
Still, price growth does risk further burdening affordability in the U.S. The Northeast continues to post strong growth in home prices, while prices in states like Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are reaching new records.
The median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. continues to climb month over month, reaching $390,000 in December 2024.
Adding to the market pressures influencing prices are the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration and January’s incredibly destructive wildfires in Los Angeles County, which will increase building material costs in the short-term and delay home construction times. Inevitably, these costs will be passed on to the homebuyers and property owners.
“Home prices have remained flat since the housing market began seeing slower activity this past summer. Bifurcation across markets has also persisted. Northeastern markets drove appreciation growth due to low inventories of homes for sale while Southern markets readjusted to higher inventories and increases in variable mortgage costs, such as taxes and insurance. Home prices are also cooling in the markets in Mountain West, which have been trying to find stability over the last year following the surge in mortgage rates and price declines from pandemic highs. Despite the difficult housing markets conditions in 2024, home prices increased about 4.5% over the course of the year, a small jump compared to the 4.1% uptick in 2023. Going forward, with inventories slowly improving and mortgage rates remaining elevated, forecasts suggest a smaller overall increase in prices in 2025.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – December 2024
Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in December. The state of Hawaii and the District of Colombia both posted annual home price declines of -1.1% and -0.7%, respectively. The states with the highest increases year over year were Connecticut (up by 7.8%) and New Jersey (up by 7.7%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in August, with Chicago posting the highest gain at 5.6% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Provo-Orem, UT (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Tucson, AZ; Albuquerque, NM; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ; and West Palm Beach-boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL; (70%-plus probability) are also at very high risk of declines in home prices over the next 12 months.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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Written by: Economy Team