According to ATTOM’s newly released Q4 2024 Special Housing Risk Report, the most at-risk markets were heavily concentrated in California, Illinois, and New York City area, with some parts of Florida also included. Meanwhile, less vulnerable markets were scattered across different regions of the Northeast, Midwest, and South.
WATCH: ATTOM #FiguresFriday – Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Least At-Risk of Declines in Q4 2024
The analysis also noted that the fourth-quarter trends—based on affordability gaps, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment—showed that two-thirds of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential downturns were located in California, Florida, Illinois, and the New York City area.
ATTOM’s Q4 2024 housing impact report mentioned that on the opposite end of the risk spectrum, about half of the markets deemed least likely to decline were in Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. This group included four in the Washington, DC, area and three each in the Nashville, TN, and Richmond, VA, regions.
Also, according to the report, Counties were classified as more or less at risk based on factors such as the percentage of homes at risk of foreclosure, the share of properties with mortgage balances exceeding estimated values, the portion of average local wages needed to cover major homeownership costs for median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.
ATTOM’s latest analysis stated that of the 566 counties analyzed in the fourth-quarter report, 51 were identified as least vulnerable to housing market issues due to a tie in rankings. Among them, 23 were located in the South, 13 each in the Midwest and Northeast, and two in the West.
In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q4 2024 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal the top 10 U.S. counties least at-risk of housing market declines. Those include: Winnebago County, WI; Outagamie County, WI; Brown County, WI; Chittenden County, VT; Medina County, OH; Ontario County, NY; Arlington County, VA; Tompkins County, NY; and Durham County, NC; and Henrico County, VA.
#1 – Winnebago County, WI
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 4% of properties underwater
- 01% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 3% November 2024 unemployment rate
#2 – Outagamie County, WI
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 4% of properties underwater
- 02% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 2% November 2024 unemployment rate
#3 – Brown County, WI
- 3% of income needed to buy
- 2% of properties underwater
- 01% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 3% November 2024 unemployment rate
#4 – Chittenden County, VT
- 2% of income needed to buy
- 9% of properties underwater
- 0% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 1% November 2024 unemployment rate
#5 – Medina County, OH
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 0% of properties underwater
- 02% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 6% November 2024 unemployment rate
#6 – Ontario County, NY
- 8% of income needed to buy
- 1% of properties underwater
- 04% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 8% November 2024 unemployment rate
#7 – Arlington County, VA
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 8% of properties underwater
- 01% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 3% November 2024 unemployment rate
#8 – Tompkins County, NY
- 4% of income needed to buy
- 4% of properties underwater
- 02% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 0% November 2024 unemployment rate
#9 – Durham County, NC
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 2% of properties underwater
- 04% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 1% November 2024 unemployment rate
#10 – Henrico County, VA
- 5% of income needed to buy
- 1% of properties underwater
- 03% of properties with foreclosure filings
- 9% November 2024 unemployment rate
Want to learn more about the most and least vulnerable housing market in your area? Contact us to find out how!
Written by: Megan Hunt