According to ATTOM’s newly released Q3 2024 Housing Market Impact Risk Report, California, New Jersey, and Illinois once again feature a high concentration of the most at-risk markets, with several areas in Florida also falling into this category. Meanwhile, the least-vulnerable markets remain predominantly clustered in the South. The report highlights county-level housing markets across the United States that are more or less susceptible to declines in the third quarter of 2024.
WATCH: ATTOM #FiguresFriday – Top 10 Most Vulnerable U.S. Housing Markets in Q3 2024
The analysis also noted that third-quarter trends, based on factors such as affordability gaps, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates, showed that two-thirds of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to potential declines were located in California, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey. Notably, Florida joined this group in the third quarter, marking a shift from earlier periods when fewer of its markets were categorized as being at higher risk of downturns.
ATTOM’s Q3 2024 housing market impact risk report mentioned that the latest list of county-level housing markets at higher risk included six in the Chicago, IL area, five in or near New York City, and four in southern New Jersey. Additionally, 13 were located in California, primarily in inland regions away from the Pacific coast. The remaining counties were spread across the Northeast, South, and Midwest.
Also, according to the report, on the opposite end of the risk spectrum, over half of the markets deemed least likely to experience declines were located in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana, and New Hampshire. This group included four markets within the Washington, D.C., metro area.
ATTOM’s latest analysis stated that of the 50 counties identified as least vulnerable to housing market challenges in the third-quarter report, 22 were located in the South. The Midwest accounted for 13, the Northeast had 11, and only four were in the West. This analysis was based on a review of 578 counties nationwide.
In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q3 2024 Housing Market Impact Risk Report to reveal the top 10 most vulnerable U.S. housing markets. Those include:
#1 – Butte, CA
- 5% of income needed to buy
- 7% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 816 properties with foreclosure filings
- 3% August 2024 unemployment rate
#2 – San Joaquin, CA
- 2% of income needed to buy
- 8% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 921 properties with foreclosure filings
- 8% August 2024 unemployment rate
#3 – Kings, CA
- 8% of income needed to buy
- 1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 802 properties with foreclosure filings
- 2% August 2024 unemployment rate
#4 – Humboldt, CA
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 642 properties with foreclosure filings
- 8% August 2024 unemployment rate
#5 – Cumberland, NJ
- 6% of income needed to buy
- 9% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 571 properties with foreclosure filings
- 7% August 2024 unemployment rate
#6 – Kern, CA
- 5% of income needed to buy
- 7% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 770 properties with foreclosure filings
- 7% August 2024 unemployment rate
#7 – Atlantic, NJ
- 7% of income needed to buy
- 7% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 766 properties with foreclosure filings
- 8% August 2024 unemployment rate
#8 – Solano, CA
- 7% of income needed to buy
- 1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 1,069 properties with foreclosure filings
- 7% August 2024 unemployment rate
#9 – Lake, IN
- 28% of income needed to buy
- 9% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 608 properties with foreclosure filings
- 3% August 2024 unemployment rate
#10 – Madera, CA
- 9% of income needed to buy
- 4% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 648 properties with foreclosure filings
- 4% August 2024 unemployment rate
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Written by: Megan Hunt