Atlantic hurricane news: 2024 could potentially be an explosive season
The countdown to the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has already begun for many risk management professionals.
June 1 marks the beginning of the season when conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) typically reach a point where they could sustain hurricane growth and development. The period from June 1 until Nov. 30 — the official end date of the hurricane season — accounts for 97% of all Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone activity. Fortunately, pre- and early-season tropical cyclones (the generic term for hurricanes, tropical storms, or typhoons) are rare and generally weak. The reason for this is that conditions are not quite extreme enough this early in the year.
Tropical cyclones are heat engines. They require fuel in the form of heat from the ocean for power. The more heat, the more fuel available for the engine to run.
The requisite conditions for hurricane development are primarily the ocean’s temperature, often referred to as sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean heat content, the amount of warm water at depth beneath the surface.
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Atlantic Ocean News: Repeated Record-Breaking Sea Surface Temperatures
The commonly accepted SST necessary for hurricane development is between 26 – 27 °C (79 – 81 °F).
If SSTs are warmer and ocean heat content is more pervasive, then hurricanes could become stronger, faster. This occurred in 2023 when Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified prior to landing in Acapulco, Mexico.
The current NAO-wide average SST (Figure 1) as of May 5 is 21.1 °C (70.0 °F). This is not quite hot enough for tropical cyclone activity, but it’s close. In Figure 1 below, the solid, black line shows the daily NAO SST, the orange line is 2023, and the fine, dashed line is the 1982 – 2011 average. The average daily NAO SST for May 5 is nearly a full degree Celsius cooler than current temperature readings.
Source: NOAA, 2024
The most apparent and alarming thing to note from Figure 1 above is that 2024 daily SSTs have been consistently higher than the record-warm SSTs in 2023 throughout the first four months of the year.
2023 ranked very high in terms of hurricane activity, with 20 named storms in a single season, which is the fourth-highest number on record. While it is not a definite indication of later-season (mid-August to mid-September) SSTs, the current state of ocean temperatures in the Atlantic is concerning.
Where Are Temperatures Above Average in the Atlantic?
When it comes to SSTs and their effect on the Atlantic hurricane season, the question “Where?” is just as important as the question “How hot?”
Current SSTs (Figure 2) in the NAO portion stretching from the east coast of Africa through the southern Caribbean Sea is known as the Main Development Region. This area is where nearly 80% of all major hurricanes form from African Easterly Waves, which is very close to the requisite 26 °C for hurricane development.
The ocean temperature for hurricane development
The other region to watch is the Gulf of Mexico. The warm, shallow waters in the Gulf can act as boosters for tropical cyclones moving west from the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The Gulf of Mexico is also a hotspot for late-season systems.
Source: NOAA OISST and Climate Change Institute, 2024
A Look Ahead at the 2024 Hurricane Season
If summer 2024 NAO SSTs set new records, what does this mean for the upcoming season?
Published season outlooks indicate that the 2024 hurricane season will be busy. There is high confidence that El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will wane, and forecasters currently believe that the probability of a return to La Niña by mid- to late-summer is high.
Future El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions combined with expected very warm SSTs means that there will be little to inhibit hurricane formation and development in the NAO. This does not mean there will definitely be more landfalling hurricanes damaging property along the Gulf and East Coast states, but it certainly does not hurt the odds either.
Whichever way the wind blows, all eyes will be on the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year.
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Written by: Jon Schneyer